Moving from Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for this long.”

These observations have fueled a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”