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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or merely the greatest surprise.

But the current field is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners falling away and recent underperformers improving in unison. Under an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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